Dear clients and friends,
Today, the new Law on Tourist Use of Housing in the Canary Islands
will
be published. As expected, many of you have contacted me with
concerns
about the future of the real estate market in southern Tenerife,
especially regarding price developments.
Will prices drop?
After nearly two decades in the real estate sector and having
experienced various market cycles, I want to share my forecast:
prices
of correctly valued properties will NOT drop. But there WILL be a
correction for overvalued properties. Let me explain why:
1. Money loses its purchasing power. The value of money decreases
year after year. 1 million euros now is not 1 million euros from
2024.
This is a fundamental economic fact that many forget when
anticipating
price drops.
2. Construction costs continue to rise. Construction prices
continue
to increase, driven by rising material costs, labor costs, and the
shortage of qualified personnel. Now building a new home is more
expensive than buying a used one.
3. Scarce land supply. South of Tenerife remains an island with
limited urban land. The supply of buildable land does not increase,
while demand remains strong and prices per m² of urban land have
doubled.
4. We WILL see a correction in artificially inflated prices.
Currently, there are many properties overvalued by 20. This
“artificial”
markup was generated more by owners’ wishes than by market reality.
So,
there will be a 15-20 price correction, which is necessary and
healthy
and will separate the wheat from the chaff. For example, a studio in
Borinquen in Las Americas now offered for €240,000 will return to
costing €190,000 (which is its real price). A villa in El Madronal
advertised for €3,000,000 will cost €2,400,000 (which is its real
price).
Will sales drop?
Certainly, south of Tenerife will lose its appeal as “a vacation
investment.” But the approval of the new law does NOT mean that sales
will drop. Let me explain:
The concept of “vacation rental investment” in Tenerife is relatively
new. It didn’t exist about 6-7 years ago. What did we, estate agents,
do
before 2017-2018? We never sold “pure and solid investment.” We sold
“a
house for your family vacations,” “a place under the sun” where the
weather is always good, “an option to park your money “ - a tangible
way
to preserve wealth. The new law simply returns us to that model. We
need
to change our mindset and narrative. Tenerife’s sun will continue to
shine, the beaches will remain magnificent, and the quality of life
will
continue to attract buyers.
Despite the uncertainty in the first part of the year caused by the
new
Law, sales have shown only a slight decrease. I attach the PDF with
official sales data from the Ministry of Development in the 5
municipalities where Asten Realty® operates.
Lessons from other markets in Spain.
We have seen similar situations in other Spanish destinations that
give
us valuable clues:
Barcelona implemented severe restrictions on vacation rentals since
2016
and announced the total elimination of tourist licenses by 2028.
Result?
Real estate prices did not collapse. In fact, the market adapted:
many
owners simply switched to long-term rentals or seasonal rentals, and
buyers kept coming attracted by the city itself.
Mallorca suspended new vacation licenses in 2022. Properties WITH
existing licenses significantly increased in value, becoming a scarce
asset. And most revealing: the general real estate market remained
firm
because demand for second homes and primary residences does not
depend
on rentals.
In both cases, the lesson was clear: restrictions on vacation rentals
did not bring down real estate markets because property demand has
multiple motivations, not just profitability from tourist rentals.
What does this mean for you?
If you’re thinking of buying: This could be a good time. Inflated
prices
will correct, but real prices will hold. Look for correctly valued
properties and think long-term.
If you’re an owner: Don’t panic. Your property remains a valuable
asset
in a prime location. If you had a vacation license and were thinking
about tourist rentals, consider other options: long-term rental,
personal use, or simply maintaining it as a wealth investment.
If you’re selling: Be realistic with the price. The market will
reward
correctly valued properties and harshly penalize overvalued ones.
Conclusion.
This Housing Law represents a change, not a catastrophe. Markets
adapt,
we professionals adapt, and south Tenerife will continue to be one of
Europe’s most desired destinations. People will continue to buy in
Tenerife for the sun, for the lifestyle, for the security, for the
international community, and yes, also as a way to preserve wealth
against inflation.
As always, myself and the 41 real estate experts at Asten Realty® are
at
your disposal to analyze any particular situation and help you make
the
best decisions for your interests.
Kind regards,
Anton Sorokko